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Demographics

[A short analysis]

Market Decisions GIS, StatsSA (www.statssa.gov.za)

CALCULATION OF THE POPULATION UPDATE 2017

South Africa’s Population Census 2011 was released in 2012 by Statistics SA. Market Decisions updates the information with data from the municipalities. Between 1996, 2001 and 2011, there have been changes in boundaries and sub-places. The only data that can be adequately compared is at Ward level. It is important to note that the level of information on illegal residents will always be problematical. The population data as extracted from Census 2011 by province, is outlined in the Table below:

Province

Black_African

 Coloured

Indian_Asian

 White

Other_Race

Group

 Eastern Cape

 5,660,230

541,850

 27,929

 310,450

 21,595

 6,562,054

 Free State

 2,405,533

83,844

 10,398

 239,026

 6,790

 2,745,591

 Gauteng

 9,493,684

423,594

 356,574

1,913,884

 84,527

12,272,263

 KwaZulu-Natal

 8,912,921

141,376

 756,991

 428,842

 27,170

10,267,300

 Limpopo

 5,224,754

14,415

 17,881

 139,359

 8,459

 5,404,868

 Mpumalanga

 3,662,219

36,611

 27,917

 303,595

 9,597

 4,039,939

 North West

 3,152,063

71,409

 20,652

 255,385

 10,444

 3,509,953

 Northern Cape

576,986

461,899

 7,827

 81,246

 17,903

 1,145,861

 Western Cape

 1,912,547

 2,840,404

 60,761

 915,053

 93,969

 5,822,734

Total Population

 41,000,937

 4,615,402

 1,286,930

4,586,840

280,454

51,770,563


 % Distribution by Group

Black_African

 Coloured

Indian_Asian

 White

Other_Race

Group

 Eastern Cape

86.3%

8.3%

0.4%

4.7%

0.3%

100.0%

 Free State

87.6%

3.1%

0.4%

8.7%

0.2%

100.0%

 Gauteng

77.4%

3.5%

2.9%

15.6%

0.7%

100.0%

 KwaZulu-Natal

86.8%

1.4%

7.4%

4.2%

0.3%

100.0%

 Limpopo

96.7%

0.3%

0.3%

2.6%

0.2%

100.0%

 Mpumalanga

90.7%

0.9%

0.7%

7.5%

0.2%

100.0%

 North West

89.8%

2.0%

0.6%

7.3%

0.3%

100.0%

 Northern Cape

50.4%

40.3%

0.7%

7.1%

1.6%

100.0%

 Western Cape

32.8%

48.8%

1.0%

15.7%

1.6%

100.0%


 % Distribution by Province

Black_African

 Coloured

Indian_Asian

 White

Other_Race

Group

 Eastern Cape

13.8%

11.7%

2.2%

6.8%

7.7%

12.7%

 Free State

5.9%

1.8%

0.8%

5.2%

2.4%

5.3%

 Gauteng

23.2%

9.2%

27.7%

41.7%

30.1%

23.7%

 KwaZulu-Natal

21.7%

3.1%

58.8%

9.3%

9.7%

19.8%

 Limpopo

12.7%

0.3%

1.4%

3.0%

3.0%

10.4%

 Mpumalanga

8.9%

0.8%

2.2%

6.6%

3.4%

7.8%

 North West

7.7%

1.5%

1.6%

5.6%

3.7%

6.8%

 Northern Cape

1.4%

10.0%

0.6%

1.8%

6.4%

2.2%

 Western Cape

4.7%

61.5%

4.7%

19.9%

33.5%

11.2%

 Total Population

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

The comparison the StatsSA Population update for 2017 and Market Decisions is compared in the table below. There is a marked difference between the data sets for certain provinces and an explanation for this follows:

Stats SA 2017

Market Decisions 2015

Eastern Cape

 6,498,700

6,771,050

Free State

 2,866,700

2,877,883

Gauteng

14,278,700

13,331,167

KwaZulu-Natal

11,074,800

10,921,263

Limpopo

 5,778,400

5,766,792

Mpumalanga

 4,444,200

4,370,188

North West

 3,856,200

3,757,713

Northern Cape

 1,214,000

1,211,396

Western Cape

 6,510,300

6,387,984

Grand Total

   56,522,000

55,395,438

StatsSA releases the Mid-Year estimates and for this year, they have grouped the population by District Council, not Municipalities. In addition, from 234 municipalities, the Municipal Demarcation Board, under instruction from SALGA, have amalgamated the poor performing municipalities or those that had a better fit because they are close to Metropolitan areas. There are now 213 municipalities. There are many problems in terms of the population projections (see examples below).

According to StatsSA, The City of Johannesburg has a population of 5,396,564. The 2016 community survey lists the CoJ population at 4,946,347. Our population figures are 4,952,259.

 

StatsSA 2017

Latest IDP

CS 2016

MD Estimate

City of Johannesburg

5,396,564

4,949,347

4,947,347

4,952,259

City of Cape Town

4,174,510

4,004,793

4,049,851

4,108,631

Chris Hani District Municipality

706,975

n/a

799,828

796,637

In 2011, the Chris Hani District Municipality population was 765,125. We are not sure if they eliminated the three municipalities that were combined, because all the IDP’s individually show growth from 2011 Census.

 

MD

IDP

CS 2016

Chris Hani

796,637

 

 

Emalahleni

117,230

122,691

122,691

Engcobo

157,054

155,478

162,014

Inkwanca *

22,596

21,963

24,087

Intsika Yethu

141,426

145,344

146,341

Inxuba Yethemba

68,056

65,588

70,493

Lukanji *

196,262

190,712

204,111

Sakhisizwe

62,257

63,571

65,693

Tsolwana *

31,756

33,274

35,065

*Enoch Mgijima

Inequality in South Africa

South Africa remains a highly unequal society. Since the last Census was conducted, some people have improved lives, but the economic reality of high unemployment and poor management of the municipalities has resulted in the erosion of a growth trajectory.

Births

The post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set for the period 2016 to 2030’s goal number 16 calls for free and universal birth registration by 2030 as a way of promoting inclusive and sustainable access to essential services (UNICEF, 2014).

According to the Amendment Act all children born in South Africa must be registered within 30 days of their birth. However, it is still possible to register births after 30 days if reasons for non-compliance are provided (DHA, 2014). Between 2006 and 2016 total birth registrations has decreased from 1,346,119 to 969,000. However, it is possible that there is an undercount for foreign residents who may not have registered their children because they do not have the necessary papers.

It is alarming that 3,500 births (0.3%) occurred with mothers aged 10-14. 14% of all births are attributed to young mothers (aged 15-19). By region, the highest number of births were registered in Gauteng (303,660), followed by KwaZulu-Natal (235,692) and Limpopo (137,162). Northern Cape had the lowest number, accounting for 31,210 of all birth registrations.

Deaths

The level of mortality is one of the indicators which gauges the well-being and health status of a country. Hence its inclusion, among others, in the construction of human development indices, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and in the multi-dimensional approach to the measurement of poverty.

The quality of death registration data can be affected by the extent of late registrations, timeliness of death registration; completeness of information recorded; ill-defined causes of death, and underreporting of causes – especially in the case of HIV/AIDS. Public health programmes and researchers who rely on this data need to be aware of the level of data quality for statistical reliability.

There is a time lag in the publication of the data. The figures released by the Department of Home Affairs shows that the number of registered deaths increased yearly from a low of 317,872 in 1997, reaching a high of 614,248 death occurrences in 2006. This equates to an increase in registered death occurrences of almost double during the two periods. Since 2007, a gradual decline in registered deaths was observed from 606,239 in 2007 to 456,612 in 2016.

The results below show declining levels of mortality from 2006. This is in part due to the availability of anti-retroviral drugs for HIV-AIDS patients. There may be a slight variation once the figures are updated with late registrations or delayed death notification forms.


The distribution of deaths by province shows that the highest proportion of deaths occurred in Gauteng province (21.3%), closely followed by KwaZulu-Natal (18,6%) and Eastern Cape (14,5%). The lowest percentages of deaths were observed in Northern Cape (3,0%) and Free State (7,0%).

Migration

Migratory patterns globally indicate a higher than average movement of people. Africans across the continent look for a better life in Europe, and some of them go through dangerous channels to get this.  To halt migration requires a major commitment by the leaders in the home countries, creating an economy that is sustainable and an education system geared towards supplying employment for many people.

Migration takes various forms in South Africa. Generally, migrants from West African countries stream into Western and Northern Cape regions of South Africa. The countries that border with South Africa, i.e. Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and others tend to drift towards Gauteng and the provinces that enable them to obtain employment.

The migration of people internally in South Africa occurs from rural to urban cities. While a large part of the population now has access to tertiary education, the unemployment in their home cities result in many young people seeking opportunity elsewhere. For those working in blue collar positions, most of them live in one of the many informal settlements as a start.

In South Africa, the main provinces to which people migrate continue to be Gauteng and Western Cape. More recently, both North West and Mpumalanga have been recipients of residents from the neighbouring provinces.

The municipalities will require streamlining and a strategy for economic upliftment.

SOCIAL GRANTS IN SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa had a total of 14,810,957 grant recipients in 2010. By 2017, this figure has grown to 17,515,753. 19% goes to Old Age Pensions, and the disability grant has declined from 8% in 2010 to 6% in 2017. Child support is 70% of all grants.
While social grants or basic income grants remain a lifeline for many, there are problems with young mothers choosing to have children to gain access to the monthly grant. Overall, this is important as it has achieved the UN Goal 1 of the Millenium Development Goals of halving poverty.
All provinces, except Gauteng and Western Cape, have grants overtake the population.

TAXPAYERS IN SOUTH AFRICA

Overall, personal income tax makes up 33% of SARS revenue, and VAT 15% (after refunds as 28% is collected). Customs & Excise is 27% and company tax is 18%. 
The tax threshold in South Africa is approximately R60,000 per year on a weekly, fortnightly or monthly basis. This means that the people in this threshold do not have to submit a tax return. However, SARS issues over 16 million tax certificates which indicate that a large part of the tax base is below the threshold and while they may not pay income tax, they do pay UIF and a Skills Development Levy. (Government collects over R15 billion in SDL)
Upskilling the population requires a lot of strategic thought in a developing country. This is best left to the ministry for Trade and Industry.

Demographics summary

Market Decisions has analysed the data for population inequality, births, deaths and migration per province. There was a marked difference between the provincial population data sets for Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal between StatsSA and Market Decisions. Keeping track of births and deaths as well as causes, ages and locations of deaths, all assists in the creation of data for a well-functioning health system. The key is to keep the information consistent to make it comparable across boundaries, regions, and timeframes. However, recent changes to municipal boundaries, municipal name changes, combining parts of a municipality to several districts have resulted in greater challenges.