Our Geo-Spatial World

There are major changes in the Geo-Spatial world, not least the popularity of Google Earth as a receptacle for data on a map. However, this is small and perhaps necessary for some sections of business but not for broad government or large enterprises. The most important connector in the world of AI and Geospatial technology will be Data.  A data-centric organisation works to ensure that the information they have internally is up to date, linked to their physical or online presence and is able to track purchases.

The problem with addresses in South Africa is that there is no cohesion between data provided by the State through Statistics South Africa, Surveyor General and Local Government as well as professional bodies such as CSIR, Demarcation Board and Private entities such as MAPS and others. Statistics South Africa works at EA level, and it is very difficult to weight a sample of 10,000 households to EA level because the cost of weighting data is reduced accuracy. The sampling variance, standard deviation and standard error increase.

With reviews of social media, google and others becoming the norm in research perhaps some centres and retailers should look at different methodologies to explore their shoppers in depth.

Market Decisions – gis@marketdecisions.co.za

Geospatially speaking

South Africa after 30 years has to produce a strategically aligned development model if the country is to create a successful and sustainable economy for its population of over 60 million people, then investing in STEM education will go a long way.  This has to be at pre-primary, primary, secondary level so that by the time it comes to tertiary education, there would be a level of ease. Also, subjects for which bursaries should be given should be within the STEM categories, where an over 65% pass rate is achieved.  This is how South Korea and Poland succeeded in raising their per capita income.

We have called for a proper classification of geographical settlements in order to identify, rank and deliver services and infrastructure. We are pleased to announce that some of this has been taken up by government. Below is the classification according to the MIIF (Municipal Infrastructure Investment Framework).

Statistics on South Africa – displayed as graphics

Our company has been involved with GIS data and platform since 1994, and became a leader in clarifying, verifying, and co-ordinating information from the three main census periods of: 1996, 2001 and 2011. The 2022 Census conducted during February-May 2022 has been published but there are issues with some of the released data. The following are issues we have raised:

The undercount in the PES (post enumeration survey) show that this is 29.6% overall, and by race group, for “African” 72% (Pop 50 million) for “Indian/Asian”; 62% (1,6 million) for “White” 45% (4.5 million) and for “Coloured” (5,1 million). It is even more alarming with the undercount for those aged 20-44 (37%).

POST ENUMERATION SURVEY – 8 June to 26 July 2022

Current population is 62,45 million, derived as follows:

24 million counted in Census and PES

12 million counted in Census but not in the PES.

17 million counted in PEC and not in the census.

The shortfall is 8.8 million.

Population 2011              51,768,872

Population 2021              62,010,000

Growth:                             10,241,128

Total Births 2012 to 2022                                    11,723,088

Total Deaths 2012 to 2022                                 5,411,156

Net Births minus deaths 6,311,932

Was 4 million due to net migration? 

RESEARCH IN UNDERSTANDING THE ISSUES – SOME EXAMPLES

All our research had to be conducted on the ground with estate agents, retail shopping centre development, fertility and mortality figures where they were available.

    • Rustenburg shows a growth of 12,740 from 2011 to 2022. In order to verify this, we contacted the council (mostly acting) and the District Council of Bojanala who referred us to figures published by Wikipedia.
    • Tshwane/Pretoria/Centurion overlaps with the North-West Municipalities as well as the Cities of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni. IDP’s do not match with Census, nor does Statistics South Africa mid-year population estimates.
    • The City of Johannesburg has 674,067 full title homes and 279,403 sectional title homes. This excludes large parts of the city with dwellings not registered. Also, Emfuleni and the City have overlapping settlements.
    • Rural/Urban/Semi Urban: In the rural area of Ditsobotla, Witzenberg, Swartland and more, the low-income inflow areas have largely become “no-go” areas because of a lack of control on the establishment of settlements, as some of these are by the Department of Human Settlements, some by land invasion and others through illegal housing construction.
    • Cross border areas: Kwaggafontein is an area to the west of the metropolitan area of Tshwane. Many members of a household could live in a room/informal shack and commute weekly. The same is true of municipal boundaries that were changed, as they also cross provincial boundaries (Siyabuswa, Collins Chabane, Makhado, Thulamela).

 

Other Facts and Statistics produced by us:

 SOCIAL GRANTS: 18 million South Africans currently receive social grants (excluding the R350 COVID grant received by 5 million people). Below is the spread by type.

  • The COVID‐19 Social Relief of Distress Grant, allocated R33.6 billion in 2024/25 is not part of this. It would be good for government to start creating the groundwork for an advanced employment development and labour program. A leap (of LEAD) towards confidence from foreign investors?

BIRTHS: South Africa’s birth rate has stabilised to just under a million births per year. What is concerning is that children as young as 10 are having children, even in 2022. The peak in 2000-2003 was largely due to the introduction of the child-care grant with many late registrations.

DEATHS: As of 2023, the figures on mortality have still not been published. Figures released in the mid-year population figures shows deaths for 2019, 2020 at 519,865 and 695,913. This would mean a 33% increase in 2020. The impact of the SARS-Cov_2 is evident.

South Africa has an established registration system but there needs to be an improvement in the summary of deaths by district, checks and balances of figures and the cause of death information. In addition, the allocation of codes needs an overhaul.

The death figures in total are compared below between the figures provided by Home Affairs, Department of Health (mortality has not been updated since 2019), the Midyear Population Estimates by Statistics South Africa and the Medical Research council.

The top causes of death are:

  • Ill-defined and unknown causes of mortality
  • Other external causes of accidental injury
  • Diabetes
  • Tuberculosis
  • Cerebrovascular diseases
  • Human Immunodeficiency virus (HIV)
  • Hypertensive diseases
  • BUILDING PLANS: These are indicative of development of residential, industrial, office and retail space in the country. We have tracked the data from 1999, and while the figures can display graphically, we have also provided this onto a GIS platform. Following the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the data becomes extremely relevant, but Statistics South Africa no longer reports on all municipalities.

MIGRATION BETWEEN REGIONS: South Africa has not thought out a proper strategy for each region and while internal migration occurs all over, it is particularly a problem in areas where there could have been high growth, but economic development is lacking. Gauteng and Western Cape are areas for in-migration and more recently North-West and Mpumalanga. It is also important to note that many South Africans own two homes: One in the rural area and one in the urban area, which is not always their main residence. It is seen as transitory.

MEDICAL AID: Some 8,3 million beneficiaries have access to medical aid in South Africa. The General Household Survey for 2021 lists the number at 9 million. Since 2022, the Council for Medical Aid Schemes no longer releases figures by province.

PERSONAL INCOME TAX: Most South Africans feel that few people in employment pay income tax. This is clearly not true.  For the 2023 tax year – 24,832,105 are registered, 7,068,925 are expected to submit a return and 5,989,787 were assessed.

THE ECONOMY: Our analysis of the economy is sourced from the South African Reserve Bank, and we display the most important graphics up to and including December 2022. The full year data for 2023 is not fully published yet.

How we spend it: